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The StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 moves into the third day of Stage 2, and the pressure is now at its highest point. Both Aurora and Astralis enter this match with a 1–2 record, which puts them one step away from elimination. This BO3 becomes a direct battle for survival — the winner gets a chance to keep going, while the loser ends their run in Budapest.
With no room left for mistakes, both teams will need to rely on structure, discipline, and the ability to adjust mid-series. Aurora will look for stability in their aggressive map control, while Astralis aim to lean on experience and composure in key rounds. The match promises a tense and competitive series where every round may become decisive for both sides’ tournament fate.
How The Bookies View It: Aurora Favoured
Ahead of this elimination match, the bookmakers lean toward Aurora as the more stable and consistent side. Their odds sit at 1.49, reflecting the expectation that they should handle the pressure better and convert their strengths in a BO3. Astralis, meanwhile, enter the duel as underdogs with odds of 2.58 — a sign that analysts see their current form as less convincing and their path to victory more complicated. Still, in a high-stakes match where one mistake can shift the entire series, the gap in odds doesn’t guarantee anything, and Astralis have enough experience to turn the numbers on their head if they find momentum early.
Aurora Gaming form. What result can be expected from Aurora Gaming
Aurora Gaming in 2025 has quickly established itself as one of the leading teams on the European CS2 scene, showing stability, strategic discipline, and the ability to adapt to high-pressure situations. A major development occurred in April, when the organization replaced its previous roster with the Turkish squad Eternal Fire, aiming to strengthen the team and secure better sponsorship conditions. The new lineup is led by the experienced captain MAJ3R, with star riflers XANTARES, Wicadia, sharpshooter woxic, and support player jottAAA.
- Aurora Gaming’s 2025 roster: MAJ3R, XANTARES, woxic, Wicadia, jottAAA.
The coaching staff includes Fabre, whose analytical approach has helped improve communication, tactical coordination, and map control. The team has quickly integrated these changes, showing strong synergy and consistent individual performances, which are reflected in their results on the international stage.
Since the roster change, Aurora Gaming has delivered notable results across multiple tournaments. They started the season with a 5th–6th place finish at Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 2025, followed by a challenging 12th–14th at BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025. At Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2025, the team placed 9th–12th, before showing stronger performances at the BLAST Bounty Fall 2025: Closed Qualifier (2–0 record) and 5th–8th at BLAST Bounty Fall 2025, demonstrating improving synergy and tactical execution.
August saw Aurora continue to impress, finishing 2nd at the Esports World Cup 2025, earning $230,000, while in September they placed 5th–8th at FISSURE Playground #2. October brought further progress with 9th–11th at ESL Pro League Season 22 and 4th at the Thunderpick World Championship 2025, highlighting consistent teamwork, map control, and clutch potential.
Throughout the season, MAJ3R has provided leadership and strategic vision, while XANTARES and Wicadia consistently deliver fragging power. woxic excels in taking key duels, and jottAAA offers reliable support and map control. This combination has allowed Aurora to implement diverse tactical approaches and adapt efficiently to different styles of opponents.
Aurora Gaming Map Pool
Aurora Gaming has shown notable strengths across different maps over the past three months. Their best performances have come on Train, where they boast an impressive 80.0% win rate, demonstrating strong coordination and control in mid-to-late rounds. On Inferno and Overpass, the team has maintained solid results with 62.5% victories on each, reflecting their ability to execute tactical strategies effectively. Their results on Mirage (46.2%) and Dust2 (45.5%) are more mixed, while Nuke has proven to be the team’s least comfortable map at 41.7%, suggesting room for improvement in adapting to complex rotations and utility usage. Overall, these statistics highlight Aurora’s map preferences and their potential to dominate in matches where their strengths align with the map pool.
Astralis form. What result can be expected from Astralis
We continue our CS2 tips with analyzing Astralis form. CS fans surely know this team, as they have achieved many victories at the highest level. As usual, we start our form analysis with the 2023 season. The team began it quite successfully, taking 4-6th place at BLAST Premier: Spring Groups 2023 and immediately following it up with a victory at the Tier-B tournament CCT Season 1 North Europe Series #3.
Astralis continued the season by playing in qualifiers and A-tier events, and things seemed to be going well. They successfully qualified for the BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 and won the CCT Season 1 South Europe Series #4, but then the team slightly lost form. The best achievement of the 2024 season for Astralis was 3-4th place at Intel Extreme Masters Cologne 2023.
- Astralis 2025 roster: dev1ce, Staehr, jabbi, HooXi, Magisk.
The 2024 season began for Astralis with a showmatch and qualifiers. Then there were two attempts to get to the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, but both were unsuccessful: TOP-11 at European RMR B and TOP-6 at European RMR Decider put an end to Astralis' participation in the home Major.
In the first match of IEM China 2024, Astralis played against steel helmet, as Monte could not make it to China. And if Monte had played there, the score would hardly have been as lopsided as 13-2 in Astralis’ favor. However, judging by the match against FaZe, where Astralis were a cut above and beat the world’s top team 2-0, perhaps Astralis were really fired up for IEM China 2024. In the playoffs of the tournament, Astralis met FaZe Clan again, but this time were the weaker team and lost 1-2, exiting the tournament.
Astralis took part in ESL Pro League Season 19, where they reached the top 4 but lost to Vitality in the match for a grand final spot. The team later achieved similar results at the CCT Season 1 Global Finals and YaLLa Compass 2024.
At BLAST Premier: Spring Finals 2024, Astralis played in Group A, where they finished in third place. They advanced to the playoffs but lost to VP and exited the tournament at the TOP-6 stage. After that, Astralis played at IEM Cologne 2024, where they placed 12th.
In the long season of ESL Pro League Season 20, they lost to Fnatic (1-2), then to CoL (0-2). They ended ESL Pro League Season 20 just as badly as they started — with another loss to CoL and elimination at the TOP-28 stage.
Next, Astralis competed at BLAST Premier: Fall Final 2024, where they placed TOP-8, and at Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024, where they ended their run in the TOP-12. As you can see, their attempts were unsuccessful.
The team returned to good form at the BLAST Premier: World Final 2024, leaving behind MOUZ, FaZe, and NaVi. After winning Group A, Astralis advanced directly to the semifinals. However, their journey at BLAST Premier: World Final 2024 ended there, as Spirit advanced to the grand final instead.
At PW Shanghai Major 2024: European RMR B, Astralis Long Sogpeg started with a loss to 9 Pandas, then lost to Sashi Esports. Only in the third match against B8 did the team manage to regroup. However, this "music" quickly ended, and Astralis failed to qualify for Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024.
The 2025 season began with Astralis hoping to return to the top of professional CS2. So far, their best results are 3rd place at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025 and 2nd place at PGL Astana 2025 and FISSURE Playground #1.
Astralis started IEM Cologne 2025 with a 2-0 win over B8, then lost 0-2 to FURIA and beat paiN Gaming 2-1, which allowed them to advance to the Group Stage of the tournament.
In the Group Stage, Astralis suffered two defeats and were eliminated from the tournament, finishing 13-16th.
Astralis performed successfully at BLAST Bounty Fall 2025: Closed Qualifier — the team secured victories over Rare Atom and Natus Vincere, earning a slot in the main event.
At BLAST Bounty Fall 2025, Astralis lost to MOUZ and were eliminated from the tournament in the TOP-8.
The next tournament for Astralis was Esports World Cup 2025, where they lost their first match to Tyloo and finished TOP-16.
At ESL Pro League Season 22, Astralis passed Stage 1 with a score of 3-2, but in Stage 2 they played 0-3 and were eliminated from the tournament, finishing in 15th-16th place.
Astralis Map Pool
Over the past three months, Astralis has shown clear preferences and weaknesses across the map pool. Ancient has been their strongest map, with a solid 66.7% win rate, while Nuke also proved reliable at 63.6%, often being chosen as their first pick. Mirage and Overpass have been more inconsistent, with win rates of 42.9% and 37.5%, showing that the team still struggles to maintain dominance on these maps. Inferno and Train have been challenging, each with only 25% victories, and Dust2 has been the toughest map, where Astralis has yet to secure a win in recent matches. Overall, the stats highlight both the maps where Astralis can confidently compete and the ones that still require improvement.
Head-to-Head History: Astralis vs Aurora
The recent head-to-head matches clearly show Aurora holding the upper hand throughout 2025. In their three latest encounters, Aurora came out on top with identical 2–1 victories at PGL Masters Bucharest 2025, ESL Pro League Season 22, and FISSURE Playground 2. In each of these series, Aurora displayed strong resilience and confidence in decisive rounds. The only exception was PGL Astana 2025, where Astralis secured a 2–1 win, but the momentum has shifted since then. Overall, the latest matchups suggest that Aurora has been more consistent in closing out tight series, while Astralis will need to prove they can break this trend in a do-or-die match.
Predicted result of the match Astralis – Aurora at StarLadder Budapest Major 2025
Considering the current form, the statistical edge in the map pool, and Aurora’s clear advantage in recent head-to-head meetings, they come into this match as the more convincing side. The Turkish-led roster has shown better discipline, higher stability in pressure rounds, and stronger late-map decision-making — all crucial factors in a BO3 elimination match. Astralis still possess the experience and individual skill to make this series competitive, but their inconsistency and weaker map performance reduce their chances of controlling the flow of the game.
If Aurora maintain their structure and continue capitalizing on key moments as they have in their previous encounters, they should be able to close out the series.
Prediction: Aurora win.
