It's time to talk about the match that will take place in Group A at the ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022. There, OG and Wings Up will fight against each other for the right to reach the playoffs. The teams are on equal playing levels and experts from bookmakers are rightly confident in the undeniable victory of OG and give a coefficient on their triumph of 1.10, which equates to ~ 85% of the probability of their triumph.
I propose to analyze in more detail the game form of both participants in the meeting in order to understand whether it is worth betting on additional markets or it is better to refrain from such risks.
OG game uniform
OG is a fairly strong team that is in the top ten CS:GO rosters in the world according to HLTV. In August, the team took part in various tournaments, including BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022 Tier-1 level. In addition, they won the last one, beating Complexity Gaming, FaZe Clan and Astralis on their way, which indicates a powerful gaming form of the European roster.
I also like the composition of OG. Here are nexa, who played in G2 Esports at one time, and flameZ and degster, after the arrival of which the roster began to play at a new level, and other players.
The beginning of last month was unsuccessful for OG and at the SteelSeries Nova Invitational 2022 they were defeated in the fight against FaZe Clan with a score of 0-2. After that, the roster was rehabilitated and already in the first open qualifying round for IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe, the team showed good results. There the team beat Sangal, AVANGAR, BLUEJAYS and Portuguese Family.
OG's feast continued at BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022. At first they couldn't beat Team Vitality and Astralis there, but after that they gathered their strength and beat Complexity Gaming, FaZe Clan and Astralis and took first place in their Play-In bracket.
ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022 got off to a good start for OG as they beat Wings Up 16-13 in their debut match before losing against Entropiq with a similar result. I note that Entropiq is a very strong team compared to Wings Up and is in 32nd place in the top from HLTV. The numbers in the rating do not always reflect reality, but it's easier to navigate. And in the fight against Entropiq, OG almost won, but there was a little lack of luck and effort.
It is noteworthy that the team has already competed against Wings Up and beat them without any problems, although it was close to failure. However, if they managed to get the upper hand in a Bo1 match, then it will not be difficult for them to win a Bo3 match. It's worth noting that they played Mirage there, a weak OG map. This time the fight should take place on two maps that OG likes.
Mappool is OG's forte. The team plays flawlessly on Ancient and has never lost in 7 matches played there. The team has 75% winrate on Inferno with Vertigo. It has been played 4 times. Dust 2 is already a weaker choice for OG, where the roster has a lower win rate of 57.1%.
Achilles' heels for OG are MIrage and Overpass, which have 40% and 28.6% win rates.
History of recent OG meetings
ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022
- OG 13-16 Entropiq
- OG 16-13 Wings Up
BLAST Premier Fall Groups 2022
- OG 2-0 Astralis
- OG 2-1 FaZe Clan
- OG 2-0 Complexity Gaming
- OG 9-16 Astralis
- OG 11-16 Team Vitality
IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe Open Qualifier 1
- OG 2-0 Portuguese Family
- OG 16-9 BLUEJAYS
- OG 1-2 Falcons
- OG 16-10 AVANGAR
- OG 16-4 Sangal
SteelSeries Nova Invitational 2022 - 2nd
Best OG cards
- Ancient (7 cards) - 100%
- Inferno (4 cards) - 75%
- Vertigo (4 cards) - 75%
- Dust 2 (7 cards) - 57.1%
- Mirage (10 cards) - 40%
- Overpass (7 cards) - 28.6%
Wings Up Game Uniform
The 67th world team from China has been showing good results lately. As part of the ongoing ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022, the team made a good attempt to beat OG and took 13 rounds in a Bo1 match, after which they beat EG.PA with a score of 2-0.
Earlier, in the second open qualifier for IEM Road to Rio 2022 China, the team showed a good result and advanced to the closed qualifier. In the latter, she was defeated, having managed to beat TYLOO, the strongest team in China, before leaving.
This time, Wings Up will have an extremely difficult task - to beat OG, the team they have already played against in this tournament. Since the team took 13 rounds on Mirage, we can assume that the roster will again impose a good fight on their opponents, but paying attention to the map pool of teams, you can see that this map will most likely not come to fruition.
By the way, speaking of maps, it should be noted that the team shows good results on Nuke and Dust 2 and plays there most often. In 9 games played on Nuke, Wings Up only had 2 losses, which translates into a 77.8% win rate. At Dust 2, the Chinese played 1 match less, but the percentage of wins is also good and is 75%.
Mirage, where Wings Up almost beat OG, has a 66.7% win rate, and on Inferno for 14 maps played, the team has a relatively poor win rate of 57.1%. Ancient and Overpass are the worst choices for Wings Up as they have 25% and 20% win rates respectively.
Wings Up match history
ESL Challenger Melbourne 2022
- Wings Up 2-0 EG.PA
- Wings Up 13-16OG
IEM Road to Rio 2022 China Closed Qualifier
- Wings Up 0-2 Rare Atom
- Wings Up 2-1 TYLOO
- Wings Up 1-2 Rare Atom
IEM Road to Rio 2022 China Open Qualifier 2
- Wings Up 2-1 CR
- Wings Up 16-7 Atlantiss
IEM Road to Rio 2022 China Open Qualifier 1
- Wings Up 0-2 Rare Atom
- Wings Up 16-3 YK
5E Arena Asia Cup 2022 - BLAST PREMIER Qualifier
- Wings Up 0-2 TYLOO
- Wings Up 16-6 Rare Atom
- Wings Up 16-9 Lord Rabbit
- Wings Up 7-16 Lynn Vision
Best Wings Up cards
- Dust 2 (9 cards) - 77.8%
- Nuke (8 cards) - 75%
- Mirage (9 cards) - 66.7%
- Inferno (14 cards) - 57.1%
- Ancient (4 cards) - 25%
- Overpass (5 cards) - 20%
Conclusion
We see that the level of play of the teams is completely different, and the team, which occupies the 8th place in the world ranking and won the Tier-1 tournament recently, practically cannot lose in the fight against the Chinese team, which is ranked 67th in the HLTV rating.
All this suggests that the victory of OG should be dry. The team is unlikely to give up at least one card and will have to take both. Yes, Wings Up will ban Ancient, where OG are just monsters, but the Europeans will show a master class on any two other maps they get to. Two, not three - I'm sure OG will win with a score of 2-0. Such a market is rewarded with a coefficient of 1.44, which is quite good, considering all of the above.
Final bet: Correct score 2-0 in favor of OG at odds of 1.44
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