Forutsigelse av kamp: Polaris Esports - NaVi | Dota 2
The International 2022: Last Chance QualifierWe are still in the Last Chance Qualfiier. The first day of matches for the right to enter the group stage of The International 2022.
Now we are talking about group A, where 6 teams are fighting for the very opportunity to try their luck in the race for Aegis.
Adding specifics, we get a match between NAVI and Polaris. This fight will be the second of the day and the second in a row for NAVI.
The match is completely non-obvious, so there will be something to watch. This is what we will do, along the way, figuring out which of the teams is worthy of winning and earning important points.
Form NAVI
NAVI are in the status of a favorite with a minimum gap. The chance of success for a team from Eastern Europe is estimated by a coefficient of around 2.9.
When parsing LCQ, it is important to understand that the fights take place in the bo2 format, and therefore such numbers are quite logical here. Favorite is a rather vague concept, especially in a match like ours, a draw is seen as a much more likely outcome.
NAVI will approach the fight with a minimal advantage due to the region where they play and the presence of performances in the international arena. In terms of the game itself, I would not distinguish them from Polaris.
The season for "Born to Win" turned out to be quite difficult. The team started it from the TOP-6 at DPC EEU 2021/2022 Tour 2: Division 1 Playoffs, after which it finished on the 2nd line of DPC EEU 2021/2022 Tour 3: Division 1.
Thanks to the 2nd place in the 2nd round, the team made it to PGL Arlington Major 2022, where they ended their processions rather ingloriously. At the American Major, the “yellow-blacks” failed to advance beyond the group stages, dropping out on the 13th-14th line.
However, the “vague” season did not prevent NAVI from entering the qualifiers for The International 2022 as one of the main contenders for victory. One of the main ones in the case of “Born to Win” is not a good characteristic.
At The International 2022: Eastern Europe Qualfier NAVI took 3rd place, making it to the LCQ.
NAVI roster
- V tune
- No[o]ne
- laise
- sweden strong
- Solo
The composition of the NAVI sample 2022 shows an alloy of experience and youth. The duo on the hard lane, and more specifically laise and swedenstrong, acted as the engine of NAVI in the first half of the year, but now there is a drawdown. To whom such a term is unlikely to be applied, it is to No[o]ne.
The Ukrainian mid laner is still a strong solo laner and even despite mistakes in 1v1 matches, he puts out a good game. Solo and V-Tune, in my understanding, play stably, to the best of their ability, and this is rather a minus.
Heroes of NAVI
Most picked heroes for NAVI in patch 7.32: Primal Beast (4 matches, 50% wins), Batrider (3 matches, 33% wins), Undying (3 matches, 33% wins), Snapfire (3 matches, 0 wins).
Polaris Esports Uniform
In the status of an underdog with a minimum gap in this match, Polaris Esports will play. The chance of their victory is estimated by the coefficient within 3.9.
Such a figure in bo2 - consider that equality. In fact, we should get it.
In general, the history of Polaris this season is quite poetic. Few people were waiting for the team in LCQ, but here they are.
Strong Filipinos have always been a thunderstorm in local tournaments, and rarely shot in the leagues. During the season, the team was selected from the top division to the first, where it then took 4th place and in the third round flew back to the second league.
The funny thing is that relegation to the second division did not prevent Polaris from reaching the final of the LCQ qualifiers, where they almost left behind Talon, losing the competitive fight with a score of 2-3.
Polaris Esports Roster
- Natsumi
- Lelouch-
- force
- xavius
- eyyou
I would not like to single out anyone specific from this composition. Polaris look good as a whole. That, as for me, helped them to get into the LCQ.
Heroes Polaris Esports
Most used Polaris Esports characters: Marci (8 matches, 75% wins), Undying (7 matches, 71% wins), Primal Beast (7 matches, 57% wins), Lina (5 matches, 100% wins), Pangolier (5 matches, 100% wins).
History of personal confrontations
Previously, the teams did not play each other in official matches. This fight will be their first face-to-face confrontation.
Outcome
In this match, I do not see for myself a winner who can close the meeting 2-0. Yes, NAVI are more weighty: they played in the top league, where their rivals were Team Spirit, for example.
NAVI also played in the Major, but it hardly makes sense to recall that experience. There were a couple of shots, like a Secret victory, but that's it.
Polaris, on the other hand, swam all season, and in the third round they completely flew to the second division. But at the qualifiers for The International, they showed themselves very well, which will definitely give them a boost.
The fight in this game will be in drafts, with which NAVI seems to be doing just fine. The problems for the “yellow-blacks” start from the mid-game stage, where Natus Vincere cannot find themselves and are lost on the map even with an advantage.
As for me, Polaris will catch NAVI on one of the maps.
Bottom line: +0.5 handicap on Polaris.
Prediction for the game between NAVI and Polaris in the Last Chance Qualifier group stage for The International 11. For Natus Vincere, this will be the second match during the game day, earlier they will have to play with nouns. Polaris will start their way to Last Chance with the match against Natus Vincere.
Polaris line-up
- Natsumi-
- Lelouch-
- force
- xavius
- eyyou
NAVI roster
- V tune
- No[O]ne
- laise
- sweden strong
- Solo
Polaris' path to qualifying for Last Chance (The International 11):
- Lost 2-3 vs Talon Esports - September 17
- Winning the match with T1 with a score of 2:1
- Winning the match with RSG with a score of 2:0
- Victory in the match with Neon Esports with a score of 2:0
- Lost in a match with Talon Esports with a score of 0:2
- Victory in the match with Nigma Galaxy SEA with a score of 2:0
NAVI's path to the qualifiers for Last Chance (The International 11):
- The result of the match with nouns is expected - October 8
- Lost in a match with BB Team with a score of 0:2 - September 7
- Lost in a match with the Outsiders with a score of 0:2
- Victory in the match with BB Team with a score of 2:1
- Victory in the match with HellRaisers with a score of 2:1
Frequently used NAVI heroes in public:
- V-Tune: Drow Ranger/Faceless Void/Morphling
- No[O]ne: Primal Beast/Morphling/Slark/Queen of Pain/Ember Spirit
- laise: Enigma/Undying/Visage/Primal Beast/Venomancer
- swedenstrong: Techies/Marci/IO/Shadow Shaman/Ancient Apparation/Primal Beast
- Solo: Dawnbreaker/Jakiro/Undying/Chen/Disraptor/Abaddon
Frequently used Execration heroes in public/official matches:
- Natsumi-: Faceless Void/Meepo/Arc Warden/Morphling/Phantom Lancer
- Lelouch: Ember Spirit/Lina/Pangolier/Batrider
- Force: Primal Beast/Marci/Undying/Viper/Tidehunter/Enigma
- Xavius: Marci/Keeper of the Light/Skywrath Mage
- eyyou: Omniknight/Wintern Wyvern/Oracle/Chen/Lich/Bane
NAVI needs to think something about Primal Beast and Marci, both teams play with these heroes and there will be an active fight for them. Also, Natus Vincere should be wary of Meepo/Arc Warden/Faceless Void/Morphling from Natsumi-, or pick one of these heroes themselves. Polaris has a bunch of nasty heroes that will put a spoke in NAVI's wheels. In BO2, this is very cool for Polaris and extremely terrible for NAVI, definitely for 1 map from Polaris, the main thing is that the team from Southeast Asia does not give IO to Natus Vincere.
Polaris will still have time to look at the match between nouns and NAVI and there they will already understand the partial rate of NAVI heroes, warding and so on, they will be able to prepare well, plus they play in their region, without the jetlag that NAVI can have. It seems that everything here is in favor of Polaris.
- Polaris win - odds 3.96
- NAVI victory - coefficient 3.06
- Draw - odds 1.94
On 1 map from Polaris they give only 1.35, the main thing is that the guys from Southeast Asia ban Primal Beast/IO and then they can close 2:0. Purely because of the odds of 4, I believe in Polaris, but a draw is the most logical outcome here, although with the victory of Polaris - 50 to 50.
Prediction: Polaris will win NAVI - odds 3.96
Bookmakers & Statistics
NaVi er oppført som favorittene til kampen hos de fleste bookmakere, og oddsen på dem er lik 3.393. Polaris Esports er på sin side kampens outsidere. Oddsen på seier er omtrent 6.615.
Hvordan presterte deltakerne i de siste kampene
Siste kamper | Polaris Esports | NaVi |
5 kamper (seire) | 3 | [bortevinnerrate_5] |
10 kamper (seire) | 6 | 4 |
Det er også fornuftig å huske statistikken over kampene mellom lagene. Deltakerne i kampen før møtet spilte 0 kamper med hverandre. I disse kampene fikk Polaris Esports 0 seire mens NaVi klarte å ta 0 kamper.