Welcome to EGamersWorld. We take apart the central clash of the first round of the final day of DreamLeague S19 Stage 1 with a betting tee on the Shopify Rebellion vs ex-HellRaisers match in Group A.
For the analysis of the match, we analyzed the performances of the sides in DreamLeague S19, in the DPC regional leagues and in The Lima Major 2023. We're ready to tell you about the playing conditions of the teams and give you our opinion on the potential outcome of the match.
Here we go.
Ex-HellRairess match form - teams on the brink of a foul
We begin our analysis of the ex-HellRaisers - Shopify Rebellion match with the Eastern European representatives' game form. In this match they are nominally the favourites of the meeting, but there is a huge "but", about which a little later.
Bookmakers single out ex-HellRaisers as the potential winner of the match. The odds for such an event are at 3.38 and that's just 0.01 less than Shopify Rebellion.
Such parity is due to the ongoing tournament and the ex-HellRaisers' overall playing condition. Prior to Long DreamLeague S19, the team was pinned with hopes and called one of the contenders to advance to the next round, but the reality for ex-HR proved to be tougher.
At the end of the two game days, ex-HR finished in last place in their group, with 2 wins out of 8 games played. But before the Long Song tournament, the team won the Eastern European championships and the Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes, which should have given them confidence in their abilities.
However, it is too early to write off ex-HR. The experience of the Lima Major 2023 shows that ex-HR can come into play in a critical situation and even things out, which should be done now.
Especially since the team has a stable line-up for DreamLeague S19.
- Ex-HR's line-up for DreamLeague S19: Ramzes, kiyotaka, MieRo, Antares, Solo.
Returning to the comeback during the group stage of The Lima Major 2023, we note the ex-HR discipline. This characteristic distinguishes them from other Eastern European representatives and it plays the lion's share of ex-HR's winning matches.
The most popular ex-HR heroes
The most chosen ex-HellRaisers heroes were Enchantress (4 matches, 75% wins), Tusk (4 matches, 75% wins), Alchemist (3 matches, 100% wins), Crystal Maiden (3 matches, 100% wins), Legion Commander (3 matches, 100% wins).
If you're ready to believe in a repeat of Peruvian history - bet on ex-HR to win at odds of 3.38. Not ready to call ex-HR the winner of the actual mirror match - check out the playing condition of Shopify Rebellion. They could be described as one of the most The International heresy Stage 1 teams.
Shopify Rebellion's form is a menace of the group stages even with substitutes
Confronting ex-HellRaisers in the status of 'conditional underdogs' will be Shopify Rebellion. The American club are behind, but only nominally.
The bookmakers are not prepared to name any of the ex-HR - SR pairing as the winner of the match. Hence, the odds on Shopify Rebellion's victory are taken at around 3.39.
It is easy to compare SR with ex-HR: the team, like ex-HR, shows a high level of play in the domestic league, consistently finishing in the top 2 there, the club, similarly to ex-HR, wins at side events. The differences begin when it comes to success on the international stage, where Shopify Rebellion are doing much better in 2023.
At The Lima Major 2023, SR finished in the top 4 and was one step away from the top 3, but Talon stepped in. The former HellRaisers, on the other hand, made it to the play-offs, but they played with substitutes then and now the situation is the same.
- Shopify Rebellion: Arteezy, Mikey, SabeRLight, Cr1t, Fly.
SR didn't make it to the tournament due to visa problems with mid lane headliner. It would seem, what can Americans without their headliner and his signature Storm Spirit?
They can do enough to make them move up to No.2 in the table after two days of play, sharing it with the reigning Lima Major 2023 champions Gaimin Gladiators.
Naturally, some adjustments had to be made to the picks, but the general patterns of play remained unchanged.
Shopify Rebellion's most popular characters
The most frequent guest in spades is Disruptor. Appeared 7 times, winning all his matches.
Other popular heroes are Storm Spirit (6 games, 83% win rate), Undying (6 games, 66% win rate).
Lycan hasn't lost (4 games, 100% wins), Shadow Fiend (4 games, 75% win rate).
In Abed's absence the role of "lurker" is given to the pair of Arteezy and SabeRLight, but the lion's share of the work is done by Cr1t, who plays on the active fours as the situation demands.
Mikey gets all the help he needs in the game, taking "neutral" characters like Batrider and Invoker and letting them play their Dota 2, which resulted in 1 win and 3 draws.
If you believe that SR can beat ex-HR even with the substitutions in the centre line, bet on the victory of the American club with odds 3.39. If you do not believe in Mikey in the midfield against Kiyotaka, read our opinion on the match, but before that take a look at the history of personal confrontations.
Shopify Rebellion - ex-HR history of face-offs
The pair played when ex-HR were still in the fold of the Ukrainian organization, i.e. at The Lima Major 2023. Shopify Rebellion won the group stage net then, but HR played with a substitute.
Predicted outcome of Shopify Rebellion vs ex-HR
There is no clear favourite in this match due to Shopify Rebellion's substitution situation. Had they played with a full squad, I would have bet in their favour, as the team looks lively even with stand-up.
However, given the circumstances, the safest betting option is ѕtunet +1.5 on SR. Yes, the odds are much lower, but there is also less risk.
Bottom line: +1.5 on Shopify Rebellion.
4 Anchors + Dota Sama
